The number of active customers defines the ceiling of your recurring revenue. But more important than the total number is the trend: is the base growing, holding steady, or eroding? A base that shrinks even as revenue rises is a warning signal.
Shopify: Customers, filtered by "purchased in the last 12 months" — not your full historical customer list. Tiendanube/VTEX: recurring customers or unique customers report for the period.
If active customers fall while revenue rises, you are selling more to a shrinking group (AOV rises but base falls). That signals risk concentration and churn invisible in the revenue numbers.
| Status | Range |
|---|---|
| Healthy | Base growing MoM and buying with frequency > 3×/year |
| Alert | Stable base but purchase frequency < 2×/year |
| Critical | Base shrinking or buying only once |
Calculate what % of your active customers bought more than once. If less than 30%, the business is in pure acquisition mode — each new order has high CAC. Retention transforms the economic model.
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